Preseason ACC Predictions: Chris vs. The World

The ACC Kickoff, affectionately known (by me) as a cocktail party for media members in which Boston College looks permanently sad to be there, was held Sunday-Monday in Greensboro, N.C. As part of the event, media pundits took their shot-in-the-dark stab at preseason division standings and All-ACC teams. I, too, took that shot in the dark. The predicted order of finish was released Monday, and the All-ACC team was released Wednesday morning. Below are the real selections vs. my selections.

Tajh Boyd, the preseason player of the year, is expected to lead Clemson to the conference championship.

Photo property of Sports Illustrated/CNN

Predicted order of finish

Coastal Division Standings
Media picks, along with first-place votes
1. Miami (65)
2. Virginia Tech (27)
3. North Carolina (22)
4. Georgia Tech (6)
5. Pitt
6. Virginia
7. Duke
My picks, along with predicted conference record
1. Virginia Tech (7-1)
2. North Carolina (6-2)
3. Miami (6-2)
4. Georgia Tech (5-3)
5. Pitt (2-6)
6. Duke (2-6)
7. Virginia (0-8)
Notes: Can't really complain much about how the Coastal rankings turned out. Any of the top four teams could win the division, and that was represented by the range of first-place votes. The Coastal will be a much more difficult division than the Atlantic. The Atlantic has the powerhouses Clemson and Florida State, but the division tapers off incredibly quickly from there. The Coastal is deep. I would've liked to see Duke get the nod over Virginia in the media ballot. I don't think people realize how sad Virginia was last year, and Duke has some legitimate pieces on its football team. I have UNC over Miami because the Thursday night game in Chapel Hill will be the tiebreaker. I really didn't want to put Virginia Tech high, but the Hokies have one of the more favorable conference schedules in the ACC.


Atlantic Division Standings
Media picks, along with first-place votes
1. Clemson (102)
2. Florida State (18)
3. N.C. State
4. Wake Forest
5. Maryland
6. Syracuse
7. Boston College
My picks, along with predicted conference record
1. Clemson (8-0)
2. Florida State (7-1)
3. N.C. State (4-4)
4. Syracuse (4-4)
5. Maryland (3-5)
6. Wake Forest (2-6)
7. Boston College (0-8)
Notes: Not much argument here, either. Places 3-6 could really go to anyone. My gut says Florida State over Clemson, but the Tigers having home-field for their matchup and Tajh Boyd returning was the tipping point for me. I think I may have been a little too extreme on Virginia's 0-8 ACC record, but I feel pretty confident Boston College won't win a single conference game.

All-ACC team

Quarterback

Media: Tajh Boyd, Clemson

Chris: Tajh Boyd, Clemson

Notes: I think Bryn Renner will really step forward as an elite quarterback, but you can't vote against the returning ACC Player of the Year. It just doesn't happen.

Running Back

Media: Duke Johnson, Miami; James Wilder, Jr., Florida State

Chris: Duke Johnson, Miami; James Wilder, Jr., Florida State

Notes: This wasn't a very difficult pick. Duke Johnson was exceptional last year, and he has real Giovani Bernard potential. James Wilder, Jr. should have a big year in FSU's offense that will go to the ground often.

Miami's Duke Johnson earned the second-most votes (behind Tajh Boyd) for the preseason All-ACC team.

Photo from DoubleCoverageFootball.com

Wide Receiver

Media: Sammy Watkins, Clemson; Michael Campanaro, Wake Forest

Chris: Sammy Watkins, Clemson; Alex Amidon, Boston College

Notes: Wide receiver was without a doubt the toughest selection to make (and hey, why do we select two running backs and only two receivers, when every team in America runs at least three receivers now? Stupid). Watkins, Campanaro, Quinshad Davis, Amidon, Rashad Greene, Stefon Diggs and Jamison Crowder are all potential All-ACC talents. I had Amidon because, you know, he was first-team All-ACC last year and shattered school records. But any of those guys deserved to make the list. Davis got zero votes, which I found a bit surprising.

Offensive Line

Media: James Hurst, UNC; Morgan Moses, Virginia; Brandon Linder, Miami; Tre' Jackson, Florida State; Bryan Stork, Florida State

Chris: James Hurst, UNC; Morgan Moses, Virginia; Brandon Linder, Miami; Tre' Jackson, Florida State; Bryan Stork, Florida State

Notes: Nothing surprising here. Hurst, Stork and Jackson were all-conference selections last year. Stork is one of the best centers in the nation. Moses was a big-time recruit for Virginia and has been relatively quiet thus far in his career, but he's had a great offseason and should turn some heads this year.

James Hurst, the anchor of UNC's offensive line, led all tackles in votes.

Photo from FirstRoundGrade.com

Defensive Line

Media: Kareem Martin, UNC; Jeremiah Attaochu, Georgia Tech; Nikita Whitlock, Wake Forest; Timmy Jernigan, Florida State

Chris: Kareem Martin, UNC; James Gayle, Virginia Tech; Nikita Whitlock, Wake Forest; Aaron Donlad, Pitt

Notes: These, too, were pretty tough selections. Looking back, I should have had Attaochu as one of my DEs. He's making the switch from linebacker to DE this year, and I wasn't sure what type of production he'll be able to post from there. Regardless, Gayle/Attaochu/Martin are all toss-ups at the end spot. I think Aaron Donald was the biggest snub of the All-ACC team. The guy is two-time All-Big East and is up for several national awards. Whitlock has been one of the most productive tackles in the ACC the last couple years, so those merits put him on this list again. Jernigan is probably the best talent of anyone at the spot, but I always go with production vs. potential on these lists.

Linebackers

Media: Jack Tyler, Virginia Tech; Christian Jones, Florida State; Kevin Pierre-Louis, Boston College

Chris: Jack Tyler, Virginia Tech; Christian Jones, Florida State; Denzel Perryman, Miami

Notes: Tyler and Jones were easy selections. Pierre-Louis puts up big numbers, as Boston College linebackers are wont to do. I like Perryman's ability in the Miami defense, and better teams tend to have more All-ACC selections than bottom-dwellers, so that's why I put him on my list over Pierre-Louis.

Cornerback

Media: Ross Cockrell, Duke; Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State

Chris: Ross Cockrell, Duke; Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State

Notes: The easiest position to select. Both are returning all-conference players.

Safety

Media: Tre Boston, UNC; Jason Hendricks, Pitt

Chris: AJ Marshall, Wake Forest; Kyshoen Jarrett, Virginia Tech

Notes: The most difficult part of this entire process was finding two safeties to put on the list. I wish I could have casted zero votes for this position. Tre Boston led all vote-getters, and I bet nobody who covers North Carolina voted for him.

Tre Boston was picked preseason All-ACC despite a difficult year last season.

Photo form BleacherReport.com

Specialists:

Media: Chandler Catanzaro (PK), Clemson; Will Monday (P), Duke; Stefon Diggs (KR/PR), Maryland

Chris: Ross Martin (PK), Duke; Will Monday (P), Duke; Stefon Diggs (KR/PR), Maryland

Notes: In the most Duke thing of all Duke things, the Blue Devils will be loaded in the kicking game. Martin is one of the best talents in the nation. Catanzaro had a big year last year, and he deserves to be on this list. Will Monday is great. Stefon Diggs was the only reason people knew Maryland had a pulse last season.

I'd love to hear your comments about my picks or the media picks. Find me on Twitter @CB_ChrisMoore or leave a comment below.

2013 Draft: Hilarious at the top, value at the bottom

The NBA Draft kicks off tonight at 7:30 on ESPN. The Draft is always one of my favorite days of the year. I love the immediate speculation for the season although maybe three players from the class will have a significant impact the next year (that's not just this class, that's almost every class). I love the ridiculous suits, the one player who sits in the Green Room for an uncomfortably long time, Stephen A. Smith's vast misunderstanding of the college basketball season and how each fan base talks themselves into a pick they know was shitty in their heart.

UNLV's Anthony Bennett has great potential, but the true value in this year's draft class lies in the late first round.

This draft will be especially great because all the top-10 picks will be legitimately funny. As I hinted at last night, when I wrote that Alex Len would be the worst top-five pick of the past decade, this draft class is hilariously weak at the top. This was corroborated by respected Charlotte writer Rick Bonnell, who called Len, the 19th best player in a historically weak ACC, the best long-term prospect in the class. (Side note: How sad is it for Adam Sandler that the commercials for Grown Ups 2 will actually be less funny than the draft they're airing during?). There's not one franchise player in this draft. Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter, Trey Burke and Anthony Bennett have the most potential of them all, and their haphazard comparisons would be Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince, Mike Conley and Kenyon Martin. Good enough to be a starter/top-three player for a Finals team? Sure. Franchise player? Not for any franchise worth a damn.
However, the rich will get richer with this draft, in a sense. There's major value in role players in the back half of this first round and second round. Teams like the Clippers, Pacers, Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Bulls are all well-positioned to add critical pieces to their on-the-cusp puzzles. The following are all guys who will likely be post-lottery selections that I can see being the fifth starter/sixth man/rotation player on a championship team in the next 5-7 years:
Shane Larkin
C.J. McCollum
Reggie Bullock
Tim Hardaway, Jr.
Jamaal Franklin
Gorgui Dieng
Jeff Withey
Ray McCallum
Ricky Ledo
Allen Crabbe
Lorenzo Brown
Richard Howell
Deshaun Thomas
Ryan Kelly

Future rotation players like Lehigh's C.J. McCollum have value as post-lottery selections.

Recent years in the NBA have illustrated that teams cannot win the Finals without an excellent supporting cast. Big 3/Heat jokes aside, LeBron couldn't win until he had Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem filling the 4th/5th starter positions on his team. The 2011 Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki won because Tyson Chandler emerged as an elite defensive center, Shawn Marion did Shawn Marion things, and Jason Terry/JJ Barrea added sparks off the bench. The Spurs have built a dynasty by having a superstar, a couple great guys and several fantastic role players filling out the roster.
When we give grades/evaluations on this draft, we can't measure picks as if they're the next star for their teams. We need to take an extended look at their fit and value as rotation players. A pick like Reggie Bullock, who brings 3-point marksmanship, solid rebounding and defending to a playoff team, has more immediate value than, say, Victor Oladipo, who will be pegged as the young superstar for a team when his true fit is being an exceptional role player.
This is the same reason Harrison Barnes was considered to have a better rookie season than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Barnes had real value as a fourth-option wing scorer on a team with established stars. MKG, a second-fiddle by nature, wasn't in a position to succeed as the most talented player on the Bobcats.
So, yes, we can all laugh at the fact Alex Len will stroll onto the draft stage early Thursday night, and that team's fans will convince themselves he's their big man of the future. We'll get a lot of good laughs at some of the guys who go in the top 10, and we'll get a lot of good laughs when all 10 of those teams are back in the lottery next year. But, pay special attention as the night grows older. The NBA is getting more competitive and more balanced, and somebody picked by a playoff team in the back half of the first round could be the one guy who swings a championship to his city. This draft is light on stars but heavy on solid contributors. That's not glamorous, but it's interesting to real basketball fans at the very least.
And please, to any GM who wants to compete, use a second-round flyer on N.C. State's Richard Howell. His floor is Reggie Evans, who just started for the 4th-seeded Nets and pulled down 11+ rebounds a game.

Don't draft Alex Len

Alex Len attempts to guard Nerlens Noel, a legitimate NBA lottery pick. Source: sportsnola.com

The Bobcats have made more mistakes than GOB since their inception in 2004. Should we list them? We should list them. They named their team after an owner who jumped ship five years later, started their first season with Primoz Brezec's face on season tickets, drafted a fat point guard and a fat forward from UNC in the same year, allowed the Man Who Still Swears By Kwame Brown to run basketball operations, gave a green light to Adam Morrison's mustache, decided DJ Augustin was better than Raymond Felton, immediately blew up the only team to sniff the playoffs, let future Olympic gold medalist Tyson Chandler walk for nothing and still haven't edited their own Wikipedia page to not have a major section titled The Gerald Wallace Era (!!!!).
That said, drafting Maryland center Alex Len would be the biggest mistake the idiots in Charlotte have ever made. Sadly, as more and more mock drafts settle on the eve of the NBA Draft, it looks like the Cavs, Magic and Wizards have finally stopped joking that they may use their selections on Len. Which will leave the Bobcats with the obvious choice of taking the available one of Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore or Otto Porter. Or, sigh, Len.
For people who think basketball is played on a computer screen, Len looks OK enough. He's 7-1, 255 and is long enough to alter shots, solid enough to bang on the blocks and European enough to make people think he possesses skill. Why, then, would drafting Len be such a colossal mistake for the Bobcats, or any team in the Association for that matter?
Because he averaged 12-8 his sophomore season in an incredibly weak ACC. Because when people started saying he was considering going pro — not even that he might be a lottery pick, just that he was considering going pro — everybody's reaction was, "Really?" or "Him?" Because he had exactly two good games his entire college career. Because he never once showed the consistent ability to shoot, dribble or pass. Because he was injured during the pre-draft circuit and execs never got to see just how disappointing he is in person. Because he never once made an All-ACC team, not even the third team that included Akil Mitchell and C.J. Harris.

"Him?" Source: Jason Szenes/Getty

Basically, we're five years away from this Stephen A. Smith rant 2.0. (Click the link, it couldn't be more perfect).
The only person who has anything to gain by Len being drafted in the top five is Hasheem Thabeet, who can now point to Len and say it's his turn to be the butt of all the good NBA jokes.
No, it's not a novel opinion, but Len will be an NBA bust. Bobcats, you have good mojo going by changing your name to the Hornets. You did the right thing by taking MKG last year. Don't do this to yourself.